A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
